I’m terrible at predictions, always letting my emotions run amok through the fields, leaving my reason bereft in the ditch.
So today, I use a few tricks such as stealing my base from threehundredeight.com and augmenting it with my own thoughts, leaks, gossip and reviews of other blogs like Alex Tsakumis’ and the inestimable Gazetteer .
I think Eric Grenier does a very good job approximating Nate Silver. I may disagree with some of his weighting and like all aggregators he misses some of the local politics, personalities and peculiarities but he’s smart, his methodology is sophisticated and he’s been in the ballpark all along.
With that said I think he’s low on the NDP seat count and high on the Liberal’s. So I’ve made some adjustments.
Some general ideas about today’s vote:
There’s a strong vote for change and they’ll get out. The people who are mad at the Liberals are really mad. If my polling station is any example they voted early and would have voted often if they could have.
On the other hand government supporters are kind of meh, don’t you think? (unless they have a job playing fartcatcher to a mediocre minister) You have to think that these Liberal voter, especially those returning to the fold after hanging with just about anyone else possible can’t be considered highly motivated.
The Liberal vote remains inefficient.
When you’re looking at your core plus a few this is particularly true. Look for the places where residents make over a hundred grand a year on average and count up the seats. Not so many, right?
I think this will make the biggest difference in the Okanagan and the lower mainland where the Liberals will take fewer seats with bigger majorities than necessary.
Independents are not trending
My call has a higher number of independents but that’s more about name recognition than anything else. And where independents are running they hurt Liberals – except in Cariboo North where Bob Simpson will lose to the Liberal.
Here they are: My predictions
BC Liberal 27
Green Party 1
Here’s where I disagree with 308.com:
- Peace River North: Arthur Hadland Independent
- Prince George MacKenzie: Bobby Deepak, NDP
- Kamloops North Thompson: Kathy Kendall, NDP
- Vernon Monashee: Mark Olsen, NDP
- Penticton, Richard Cannings, NDP
- Oak Bay Gordon Head: Andrew Weaver, Green
- Comox Valley, Kassandra Dycke, NDP
- Nechako Lakes, Susan Skidmore-Hewlett, NDP
- Abbottsford South, John van Dongen Independent
Other interesting, close fights include: Parksville Qualicum, the two Chilliwacks, Boundary, Shuswap, Kamloops South and Prince George Valemont.
Prince George and Kamloops like having government members and Cabinet representation. Chilliwack has strong NDP candidates and the loss of George Abbott weakens the Liberals in Shuswap.
If everything breaks for the NDP they could possibly hit 60. If no breaks happen then 308’s prediction looks about right. Mine is a middle case.
And finally on polls. I did this for a living for long enough to have great appreciation for both the science and the art. I particularly like the innovation Angus Reid has brought to the on-line experience by replicating the ballot as faced by each respondent. To me that can only increase the accuracy, by more accurately mirroring the choices each respondent has and eliminating votes that aren’t real options. It’s no surprise that they got the same margin twice. Going out on a limb I think that 9 pt. spread will closely mirror the result tonight.