Prediction time

I’m terrible at predictions, always letting my emotions run amok through the fields, leaving my reason bereft in the ditch.

So today, I use a few tricks such as stealing my base from threehundredeight.com and augmenting it with my own thoughts, leaks, gossip and reviews of other blogs like Alex Tsakumis’ and the inestimable Gazetteer .

I think Eric Grenier does a very good job approximating Nate Silver.  I may disagree with some of his weighting and like all aggregators he misses some of the local politics, personalities and peculiarities but he’s smart, his methodology is sophisticated and he’s been in the ballpark all along.

With that said I think he’s low on the NDP seat count and high on the Liberal’s.  So I’ve made some adjustments.

Some general ideas about today’s vote:

Motivation counts

There’s a strong vote for change and they’ll get out.  The people who are mad at the Liberals are really mad.  If my polling station is any example they voted early and would have voted often if they could have.

On the other hand government supporters are kind of meh, don’t you think?  (unless they have a job playing fartcatcher to a mediocre minister) You have to think that these Liberal voter, especially those returning to the fold after hanging with just about anyone else possible can’t be considered highly motivated.

The Liberal vote remains inefficient. 

When you’re looking at your core plus a few this is particularly true.  Look for the places where residents make over a hundred grand a year on average and count up the seats.  Not so many, right?

I think this will make the biggest difference in the Okanagan and the lower mainland where the Liberals will take fewer seats with bigger majorities than necessary.

Independents are not trending

My call has a higher number of independents but that’s more about name recognition than anything else.  And where independents are running they hurt Liberals – except in Cariboo North where Bob Simpson will lose to the Liberal.

Here they are:  My predictions

NDP 54

BC Liberal 27

Independents 3

Green Party 1

Here’s where I disagree with  308.com:

  • Peace River North:  Arthur Hadland Independent
  • Prince George MacKenzie: Bobby Deepak, NDP
  • Kamloops North Thompson: Kathy Kendall, NDP
  • Vernon Monashee: Mark Olsen, NDP
  • Penticton, Richard Cannings, NDP
  • Oak Bay Gordon Head: Andrew Weaver, Green
  • Comox Valley, Kassandra Dycke, NDP
  • Nechako Lakes, Susan Skidmore-Hewlett, NDP
  • Abbottsford South, John van Dongen Independent

Other interesting, close fights include: Parksville Qualicum, the two Chilliwacks, Boundary, Shuswap, Kamloops South and Prince George Valemont.

Prince George and Kamloops like having government members and Cabinet representation.  Chilliwack has strong NDP candidates and the loss of George Abbott weakens the Liberals in Shuswap.

If everything breaks for the NDP they could possibly hit 60.  If no breaks happen then 308’s prediction looks about right.  Mine is a middle case.

And finally on polls.  I did this for a living for long enough to have great appreciation for both the science and the art.  I particularly like the innovation Angus Reid has brought to the on-line experience by replicating the ballot as faced by each respondent.   To me that can only increase the accuracy, by more accurately mirroring the choices each respondent has and eliminating votes that aren’t real options.  It’s no surprise that they got the same margin twice.  Going out on a limb I think that 9 pt. spread will closely mirror the result tonight.

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6 Responses to Prediction time

  1. John Twigg says:

    Your thinking on BC election outcome is quite similar to mine at http://www.thedailytwigg.blogspot.com, especially re Liberals inclined to stay home and not vote while anti-Liberal anti-HST folks are keen to vote – this is reflected in reports coming from polling stations too.
    Furthermore evidence suggests NDP will greatly outperform BCLiberals at pulling vote and focusing on close contests.
    Add in other factors like policy and history and I get to 60 NDP seats and lots of “others” and fewer Liberals than MSM expects.
    The 801 club could refer to when the outcome will be known and Christy will be gone, not merely when polls close.

  2. Heaney says:

    NDP 52 because it’s one of my favourite numbers and bigger than ’91

  3. Rayzor says:

    Resign NDP you let us down,only you could lose this election, worst campaign ever, be ashamed and maybe next time get the youth vote out you dumb asses, unbelievable only in BC.

  4. G. Barry Stewart says:

    I’ll predict a stunning defeat for the NDP and a stunning smile for Christy Clark.

    (Note the time of my prediction.)

  5. Paul says:

    Looks like Liberal voters were motivated to get to the polls while NDP voters assumed, just like Adrian Dix, that this would be an easy victory.

  6. Rod Smelser says:

    I think this post should be read BEFORE reading any subsequent posts.

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