Polls, polls, polls

Read the papers, listen to the radio and pay attention to the pundits and you’d think the BC Liberals are closing in on the BCNDP.

But follow the numbers –  like threehundredeight.com does – and you’ll see that’s not true. In fact, it’s getting a little worse for Christy Clark’s party. The likelihood of a BC NDP victory in May just went up to 96.4% as of February 8th.

That’s because threehundredeight includes the latest Justason poll showing a 22% lead for the NDP over the liberals.  That’s a bit higher than Angus Reid’s 15% gap between the two parties and a lot higher than the ten point gap Mustel claims on the basis of what looks an awful lot like an outlier.

I’ve heard that two more recent polls conducted by national firms for private clients are also in the Justason range, showing gaps of 19 and 21 per cent with the NDP on 48 (as the Brits like to say) and the BC Libs on 27 and 29 respectively.

At the heart of this slippage is the Premier herself.  Much has been made of the Angus Reid poll which asked voters to rate party leaders on a variety of negative and positive attributes.  Clark did not fare well.

Maybe that’s why the BC Liberals have once again rebranded.  A year ago they were (as Keith Baldrey noted) the BC Christy (in big letters) Liberal Party (in small letters).  Now they’re jsut “Today’s Liberals”, a steal from the Manitoba NDP.

In about three months time, I predict they’re going to be “Yesterday’s Liberals.”  Maybe I should copywrite that.

 

 

 

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7 Responses to Polls, polls, polls

  1. Arleigh Chase says:

    I never believe polls. While working at Vancouver City Hall for some very pro-development bureaucrats, I saw how malleable they can be. Christy Clark’s supporters are obviously just as delusional as she is if they believe they can spin her term as anything but a complete disaster.

    Plus, the Liberals ignored the one tenet of getting re-elected: don’t be evil in the term leading up to your election. The HST, the co-opting of the BC Supreme Court on the AG’s BC Rail application, the complete mismanagement of the Province’s finances, the awarding of countless contracts to cronies, the forced installation of smart meters against many homeowners’ wishes, the signing of a 20 year RCMP contract with no public input and the five billion dollar ticking time bomb of small producer, Hydro contracts all mean that this government has pretty much ticked off every citizen in the province.

    I think the only way a Liberal party member has a hope in hell of getting re-elected is if they take a public stand against Clark and her bully boys Coleman and DeJong and vote against their party on a confidence vote. British Columbians have developed a visceral hatred of all things Liberal and frankly, I’d be surprised if a few incidents of public spitting and thrown tomatoes don’t start occurring.

  2. Let’s not shoot any of the messengers Ian. The outlier you refer to is an excellent polling firm with a long history of getting it right. As I have said to everyone who has asked, Justason might very well have reported a tighter race had we polled earlier in January. We polled in late January during the pipeline hearings and media attention surrounding public protests. Regardless of what election issue is influencing voting patterns, none of us would still be in business if we weren’t doing our absolute best to get it right.

  3. G. Barry Stewart says:

    Good to know that you’re reading these blogs, Barb.

    Someone has the wrong numbers, though, and I’d say it’s Justason this time.

  4. Ian says:

    Barb, I agree up to a point. But as I noted in an earlier post Mustel has a lengthy record of understating NDP strength beyond the MOE. Their last reported polls bear out that record. And if you look at the lates 308.com chart. their NDP result sticks out like a sore thumb.

  5. unbeliever says:

    As A. Chase says above, ” a visceral hatred of all things Liberal” pretty well sums up the public opinion of these clowns. Surely the budget will be where the “knives” come out for Christy and her cohorts. If any “ethical” liberals” in the legislature still have a spine, they will vote against the government, and bring down the house of cards. Its time this stupidity ended…..

  6. G. Barry Stewart says:

    D’oh! Sorry… I meant to say Mustel (having wrong numbers), not Justason.

    I don’t know if Ian makes edits when requested (like now). In any case, my apologies for the error.

  7. Ian says:

    As noted above Mr. Stewart means Mustel, not Justason.

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