Read the papers, listen to the radio and pay attention to the pundits and you’d think the BC Liberals are closing in on the BCNDP.
But follow the numbers – like threehundredeight.com does – and you’ll see that’s not true. In fact, it’s getting a little worse for Christy Clark’s party. The likelihood of a BC NDP victory in May just went up to 96.4% as of February 8th.
That’s because threehundredeight includes the latest Justason poll showing a 22% lead for the NDP over the liberals. That’s a bit higher than Angus Reid’s 15% gap between the two parties and a lot higher than the ten point gap Mustel claims on the basis of what looks an awful lot like an outlier.
I’ve heard that two more recent polls conducted by national firms for private clients are also in the Justason range, showing gaps of 19 and 21 per cent with the NDP on 48 (as the Brits like to say) and the BC Libs on 27 and 29 respectively.
At the heart of this slippage is the Premier herself. Much has been made of the Angus Reid poll which asked voters to rate party leaders on a variety of negative and positive attributes. Clark did not fare well.
Maybe that’s why the BC Liberals have once again rebranded. A year ago they were (as Keith Baldrey noted) the BC Christy (in big letters) Liberal Party (in small letters). Now they’re jsut “Today’s Liberals”, a steal from the Manitoba NDP.
In about three months time, I predict they’re going to be “Yesterday’s Liberals.” Maybe I should copywrite that.