Think the BC Liberals are on a polling roll? Think again.
Last week Ipsos-Reid put out a poll showing the Liberals at 32%. A big uptick, right? Not so fast says polling expert blogger threehundredeight.com in an article in the Hill Times.
Here’s the money quote:
“the B.C. Liberals have consistently over-performed in polls by Ipsos-Reid – on average by about six points. Both Forum and Angus-Reid have had the Liberals at much lower numbers. The good result from Ipsos-Reid is not, then, a sign that the Liberals are on a real upswing from the mid-20s of recent months. They have merely experienced a statistically insignificant increase from a polling firm that generally gives them better results.”
Over-performed in polls by Ipsos-Reid – on average by about six points? Take those six points away from all the rest and you wind up with 26%, statistically identical to Angus Reid and Forum.
As 308 points out – Ipsos may be right and they may be wrong. Regardless, what we have is a “statistically insignificant” increase. In other words, there’s nothing out there to say the BC Liberals are going anywhere yet.
Now, over at the Pacific Gazetteer, RK is writing about the more important stuff like the reasons why the Clark Liberals are going nowhere fast. More on that later.