BC Liberal wishful thinking

 

Numbers haven’t changed in 6 months

A week ago, Mike Klassen, former Sam Sullivan staffer and defeated NPA candidate, wrote a piece of speculative fiction about a BC Liberal win next spring.  “The truth”, Klassen wrote, “is as long as you do not demonstrate gross incompetence, steal, or die in office, British Columbians will likely give you a fourth mandate.”

Earth to Klassen, Christy Clark won’t win the election.  She has demonstrated gross incompetence and most British Columbians do believe the BC Liberals stole at least the last election.

Rightly, the BC Liberals and Christy Clark in particular, have lost the trust of the vast majority of British Columbians.

Klassen’s evidence for a long shot win?  Other leaders have come from behind.  And he cites McGuinty, Redford, Salinger and even Charest in support without exploring the dynamics of those races.

But Redford is ten times the politician Clark is and her opponent screwed up big time, just like Hudak in Ontario.  Salinger and the NDP never lost the trust of Manitoba voters and their opponent was slow on the draw.  And Charest… Charest lost.

More importantly none of the four politicians Klassen points to was in the tank like the BC Liberals are in the tank.  None of them were led by an inept, shallow leader.  All of them had opposition leaders who screwed up badly.  Only Charest was saddled with corruption scandals of his own making… and he lost.

Klassen sort of admits the BC Liberals haven’t done a great job, lately, for example on what he calls the “so-called Hated Sales Tax”.  “So-called” hated?  That Klassen feels the need to use that phrase demonstrates the Liberal problem in a nutshell.

But that’s over and done with Klassen says.  Kind of like Watergate was over and done with for Nixon.

Klassen’s only argument boils down to ‘who knows what can happen in the next 6 months.’  It’s about as weak as… his previous claim that the NPA was going to sweep last year’s civic election.

A barely reported Forum poll released September 4th paints a much different picture.

First, like almost every poll since the beginning of the summer, Forum shows the BC Liberals more than 20% behind the BC NDP, statistically tied with the BC Conservatives at 23%.

In all the examples cited by Klassen the governing party was only between 7 and 10 percentage points behind.

But there are signs of a bigger problems for the BC Liberals.

Of the three major parties’ supporters, BC Liberal voters are much less enthusiastic about their choice.  Only one third of their voters claim to be supporting them enthusiastically.  Another third say they are “not very enthusiastic or not at all enthusiastic.

BC liberal voters aren’t just holding their nose to vote Liberal, they are hiding their faces and lying to their mothers about their voting preferences.

And they don’t like the Premier.  Not at all.  Only 26% of voters approve of Premier Clark’s performance.  And a quarter of Liberal voters disapprove of her.

One of the more interesting questions Forum asked was about a united BC Liberal, BC Conservative Party.  It doesn’t work so much.

True, it narrows the gap, but the gap is still large; 49% NDP to 35% for a merged right wing party.   In traditionally polarized BC that’s a blow-out election.

Interestingly, under the merger scenario the BC NDP goes up 5% drawing from both the BC Liberals and Conservatives.  10% of the Liberal vote goes NDP, as does 15% of the BC Conservative vote.

There’s lots more bad news.  The BC Liberals trail badly in every region and amongst every demographic group.

Klassen may feel a win coming on, but there’s no case to be made for it.  British Columbians aren’t just tired with the BC Liberals, they are disgusted with them.

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8 Responses to BC Liberal wishful thinking

  1. spartikus says:

    HuffPo is overpaying Mr. Klassen.

  2. Kris Klaasen says:

    Thank goodness he is no relative of mine. His name has the “a-s-s” spelling. Things will tighten considerably once there is an election. Nothing should be taken for granted. Overconfidence is one of the worst things supporters can demonstrate..

  3. e.a.f. says:

    Mr. K. can spew out all he wants but the polls are quite correct. People are fed up with the lieberals. not only do people not believe anything the government says about B.C. Rail, they now are seeing the same thing happen with BCLCB. You’d at least think the leiberals would get smart & put tht on the back burner.

    The HST is still with us. CC wasn’t even smart enough to dump that. There isn’t a demographic they haven’t insulted or made life worse for. Our hospitals are so dirty people die in them from the infections they pick up there & B.C. has had the highest rate of child poverty, in Canada, for 8 consecuitve yrs.

    CC & her posse flew to Hong Kong for a vacation complements of the taxpayers & she says she is going to open an office there. Like give us a break. There allegedly isn’t sufficient funds to give government employees a decent raise but there is money to open an office in Hong Kong? Like who gets that little plum appointment?

    I want to see the back end of the lieberals & I want an investigation into B.C. Rail & a whole lot more.

    Klassen needs to either get his head out of a bag or give up drinking. He can’t actually believe what he is writing, can he?????

  4. Marie says:

    Excellent points about trust, Ian! Voters understand that governments have to make tough decisions. They get that those decisions won’t always be the ones that every voter wants. But they rarely forgive being deceived. Particularly where it involves deception to get elected in the first place. Nothing says “you’re just in it for yourself” more than that!

  5. Flester says:

    The election is still over six months away. Anything can happen in that time. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve counted my chickens too soon in the past and been disappointed. I remain cautiously optimistic that it’s bye bye for the BC Liberals. I’ll believe it when I see it only!

  6. RS says:

    “…as long as you do not demonstrate gross incompetence…” Strike one!
    “…steal…” Strike two!
    “…die in office…” (figuratively) Strike three!

    It would seem Klassen is certifiably delusional.

    What’s going to happen over the next six months? More time on the shovel.

  7. Norm Farrell says:

    While Huffington Post paid the writer precisely what his piece was worth, the publication did incur a cost. A cost in its own credibility.

    Klassen’s arguments in general were fallacious but this one caught my attention:
    ” By 2004, his B.C. Liberal party had incurred the wrath of big labour unions. Cutbacks in services made Campbell’s government extremely unpopular. However, in May 2005 Campbell & Co. won a strong new mandate…”

    Except according to a Paul Willcock’s article widely published in July 2004, “Ipsos-Reid found the Liberals and NDP virtually tied provincially.”

    Now, eight months before the expected election, the two main parties, rather than being in a virtual tie provincially, are widely separated in the polls. Maybe Klassen’s memory is faulty but, more likely, truth is inconvenient.

    As proven repeatedly, BC Liberals are accustomed to deception and distortion. In fact, deceitfulness is a fundamental principle of the party.

  8. Valerie says:

    The scary thing is whether or not this election will be fixed somehow. The devious schemes, elitism, fascism, human rights violations, corporatism, rigged court and judicial system, deception, asymmetry in the application of the laws – have all become the new democracy. They have abused power time and time again. The question is – where is the integrity? Why does it no longer exist in politics? Look behind the masks to the puppet master. Christy Clark is a puppet, as well as an embarrassment to the people of BC.

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