Forum + Angus Reid = BC Liberal endtimes

That mysterious Angus Reid poll that trolled Kevin Falcon’s name through the fires of public opinion is out.  The conclusion?  The same as the recent Forum poll.

The BC Liberals are toast.

Maybe this is what accounts for the desperation moves of Kevin “not good enough for cabinet or anything else” Krueger last week.

Like Forum, Angus Reid has found that support for the NDP continues to climb following the by-election victories three weeks ago.

(BTW did anyone notice the excellent coverage of the swearing in ceremonies for the new MLAs?  Me neither.  Maybe because there wasn’t any).

In the on-line Reid survey of 802 BCers the NDP cracks the 50% barrier with exactly 50% support, up 7% from March.  Like the Forum survey Reid tracked the BC Liberals at 23% and the Conservatives at 19%, down 4.

With numbers like that is it any wonder that Clark is skipping town and avoiding the HST death debate.  Makes me wonder what’s in the 120 plus page bill.

The NDP leads in all four regions – the Island, the GVRD, the North and the Interior.  The Interior is very interesting – although the low sample makes the finding fluid.  There the BC Conservatives are running second to the NDP with the Liberals trailing.

That kind of vote split can affect traditionally safe seats, reducing overall seat totals in a landslide type victory.

The gender chasm is also growing with the NDP taking an almost 40% lead over the BC Liberals.  The gender gap is moving from chasm to tectonic shift territory.

Paling in comparisom is the NDP advantage amongst men – a paltry 17%.  Having been involved for over two decades in NDP polling I can tell you that in a normal year that result in itself would be astonishing.

These results are the worst ever for the BC Liberals, surpassing the disastrous fall 2010 polling results for the Liberals under Gordon Campbell.

The Reid poll also tested a merged Conservative/BC Liberal “coalition”.  The results show a coalition gaining between 21 and 17% with the NDP steady at 33 or 32%.  Undecideds in this scenario would be in the mid to high 30’s.

Two things about this:  Given that undecideds always track in the teens and twenties in BC, an election would likely still show a 15 to 17 per cent gap.  Or in other words a landslide win for the NDP.

Secondly, there won’t be this hypothetical scenario.  The BC Conservatives have ruled out a merger.  The best the BC Libs can hope for is a new name, same old faces and a PR slam claiming to be the new right wing coalition.

Thin gruel that won’t do nearly the trick called for.

One other thing that shows the problem the BC Liberals face as they go forward and try and reasemble their coalition.  30% of their 2009 voters are going Conservative, but another 20% are going NDP.  20% of the Liberal 2009 vote equals 9% and change.  They’re the folks who are pushing the NDP towards 50%.

Tacking right has helped the NDP demolish the BC Liberals.  But tacking left risks growing the Conservatives.  One front wars, good.  Two front wars, bad.  Very bad.

 

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One Response to Forum + Angus Reid = BC Liberal endtimes

  1. Norm Farrell says:

    I find it significant that these poll results occur despite Liberals enjoying non-stop puffery of the corporate media. Failed efforts to sell the Clark regime demonstrate that people are paying little attention to traditional information sources. With strong readership of independent forums, alternative POVs are given life and nakedness of the rulers is not a subject that can be ignored.

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