BC Liberals: new poll says time for a change

“Right wing split hands NDP considerable lead over Liberals”.

That’s the Vancouver Sun’s spin on the new Angus Reid poll that gives Adrian Dix and the BCNDP a 9 point lead over the BC Liberals.

Suprisingly, it’s the same as the government’s spin.

But at best it’s only part of the story of the poll.  At worst it obscures what’s really going on in BC politics.

Here’s how the Sun arrives at its conclusion: “the poll shows the BC Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since March, when Clark was sworn into office.  In the same seven-or-so-month period, John Cummins’ BC Conservatives have gained 13 percentage points, giving the party its highest level of support in recent months.”

There you have it.  The Liberals dropped 12 points and the Tories gained 13.  Ipso facto the Tories are splitting the right, handing the NDP the government.

Except the Conservative numbers reported by Angus Reid don’t bear that out.  What they show is that John Cummins and the Conservatives are taking votes from both the BC Liberals and the BCNDP.

For every two and a half votes the Conservatives get from the Liberals they get one from the NDP.  Take the Conservatives out of the equation, reassign those votes from whence they came and you still get an NDP victory, albeit by a smaller margin.   And that’s assuming all those disenchanted BC Liberals will vote BCLiberal, which is unlikely.

The real question the Sun should be asking is why have the BC Liberals lost a third of their voters since the last election?

The answer clearly isn’t just John Cummins and the Conservative Party.  After all, the BC Liberals have lost half as much again straight to the BC NDP, which alone is enough to lose an election.

Here’s my guess, which I’d love to test in an opinion research program:  The BC Liberals have lost a third of their voters because they’ve stayed too long and have lost their trust.

They’re showing all the signs of that.  The BC Liberals are arrogant, they lie, they cheat and they appear to break the law with impunity.  They talk big but deliver little.  And above all, after ten years of ‘five great goals’ and ‘the best place to live’ the average person is worse off, while the favoured few have reaped rewards beyond reason.

The irony of all this is who the BC Liberals chose to spin the media about this poll:  John Les, the benefactor of a property scam that improperly removed land from the ALR.  After an investigation, Les got away scot free while a lower echelon official was charged.

I think British Columbians are plain old tired of this kind of government.   Nobody has held them accountable.  Yet.  My sense from reviewing these numbers is that many British Columbians are itching to do just that, with or without John Cummins and the Conservatives.

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2 Responses to BC Liberals: new poll says time for a change

  1. Scotty on Denman says:

    I disagree on one of your points: you say nobody has held the BC Liberals accountable but I beg to differ. Was not the rejection of the HST holding the government, in an unprecedented new way, to account? If you mean that, because it didn’t actually topple the government, it doesn’t count as holding them to account, then maybe you’re right.
    True, a general election is the ultimate holding to account but, inasmuch as the government is almost completely preoccupied with the fallout from their revealed transgressions, with their disingenuous bids for redemption before the next election, then I think we could agree that the HST Referendum, public opinion polls, the reorganization of the Opposition, and the growing mass and volume of commentators criticizing the BC Liberals have held, if not ultimately, their government to account in a consequential way, even if it means only that their lies will be bigger and more unbelievable, and that their attempts to conceal forensic evidence of their misdeeds will be more unabashed and pressing as they approach their unavoidable day of doom in May, 2013.

    This is admittedly a negative consequence of trying to hold the government to account when the BC Liberals plainly don’t want to be. I bet their behaviour would be much different now if nobody actually did anything to hold them to account over the last two years. No doubt the election will be a settling of accounts, but even then it won’t be ultimate: that will come only when culpability is accounted for in a court of law.

  2. Linda says:

    When your P.M. rewards the most corrupt politician in Canadian history, as High Commissioner to England, means the entire country is in decay. Neither Harper nor Campbell have any morals or ethics. The poison of Harper and Campbell is filtering down to every province. BC of course is the worst province. The very worst kind of peers, for our young people. What will their own children think of them, when they read the history of this country down the road. There is nothing to look up to in this Conservative government, that is for damned sure. A fascist dictatorship regime, is about it. Harper thieving billions of our tax dollars, to give to the wealthiest corporations in the world.

    There is no doubt the Campbell/Clark BC Liberals are the worst, most corrupt and foul government, in the recorded history of this Nation. The precedent of the Campbell/Clark BC Liberal government is to, lie, deceive, thieve, be corrupt and cheat to win. What a reprehensible, representation they exude to our kids. Shame on the BC Liberals.

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