Tory minority? Majority? A Harper coup?
Who am I to predict, but I have some thoughts…
As a practicing polling type guy for several years I both appreciate what a poll can tell us, and what they can’t. I’m not sure the experts we see trotted out in the last couple of days do.
This morning I watched CTV wheel out the highly disinterested John Tory to explain how the Ontario vote split will deliver a Tory majority. Based on his rational it is very good for Ontario that this guy never got near a provincial budget.
Tory argued that the numbers now favour big Tory gains in Ontario. John Tory is living in another universe.
In 2008, Harper took 39.2% of the vote in Ontario, winning 51 seats. The Liberals took 38 seats with their 33.4% share of the vote. The NDP 17 seats with 18%. The Greens took 8% of the vote but no seats.
And this election? In the last poll taken over the weekend the Tories were at 38%, the NDP 30% and the Liberals 27%, with the Greens down to 4%.
Ontario isn’t moving places, so much as its swapping opposition parties.
I can guess how that’s concentrated and it tells me that the NDP will pick up a significant number of seats. The Liberals will fall and the Tories may make marginal inroads in the 905 but not the 25 or so seats they need to balance what are sure to be losses in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and BC.
Outside of Quebec where the Tories look to be hurt badly, BC is the other place with major movement.
Last time the Tories finished on top with 44.5% and 22 seats, the NDP took 9 seats with 26% and the Liberals 5 seats with 19% of the vote.
Nanos’ last numbers have it Conservatives 41%, NDP 35%, Liberal 18% but with a huge margin of error. Ekos, with a much smaller margin of error, has a two way tie between the NDP and Conservatives.
The only real gain showing in BC is in the NDP vote, up 9 points – outside the Nanos margin of error. The Conservatives are down. That suggests at best a stand pat election for the Tories, most likely some losses, a disaster for the Liberals (down to 2?) and a modest gain for the NDP.
If you call the Prairies stand pat, although I see 2 to 3 NDP pick-ups, what do you end up with?
A Tory majority denied in BC with the Conservatives in a seat range of 120 to 140, somewhere between 75 and 100 seats for the NDP, 50 – 70 seats for the Liberals and 15 – 30 seats for the Bloc.
The real conundrum is how Quebec breaks between the Bloc and the NDP. Good luck figuring that out.
You can check out the 2008 results by province here.