Après le smear, le surge

The first full après smear polls are out and the verdict?  It backfired.

The margin remains about 6 points with the Cons at 37 and the NDP at 31.  But most significantly Layton has a 17 point bounce in his leadership rating.

Handle a drive by smear with grace and focus in the last three days of a close election and people see it for what it is – a desperate attempt to mess with real change. Can’t have real change break out can you?

Well maybe you can.  And this may have helped convince voters that Layton is the one to deliver it.

The media was saying yesterday that they of course would never have gone with such a low rent story but since Sun Media did, well why not.

Why not?  Maybe because it’s still a cheap story with an unidentified source from a mobbed up fake news network headed up by Harper’s former chief of staff?  Just saying.

Here’s my unidentified source story for today.  All roads seem to lead to the Tories, starting with the Toronto police force and the news outlet that ran the story in the first place.  But journalists are saying this was first peddled two years ago by a Liberal operative, with the same unidentified source and no paper.

Whatever.  It’s still a nasty and strategically dodgy move characteristic of the kind you reach for from the depths of out-of-control desperation.  Wait maybe it was the Liberal campaign.

The other thing about today’s Nanos is the BC number.  The gap is narrowing between the Cons and the NDP and the Liberal number continues to diminish.

Now, I’ve written against strategic voting this campaign, but my blog buddy RossK over at Pacific Gazetteer has pretty much nailed it in BC, with one exception that’s going to earn me a lot of flack.

He’s got May down in Saanich and the Islands.  And I can’t disagree that if the goal is only to stop the Cons then that’s the vote.

But here’s my problem.  I don’t think that’s the only goal.  It’s a big one but not the only one.

One of my goals is to reduce the splintering of the left-of-centre vote, now and in the future.  I don’t see how adding a fourth party to the mix in the House of Commons serves any goal except the long-term interests of the Conservatives.

I especially don’t see how it serves the interests of the environment to locate that issue within the brand of one party, which is what it will do.

Secondly, the NDP is running an excellent first nations candidate.  And I believe if there is one unspoken blot on our nation which exceeds all others it is the continuing colonial legacy of Canada’s relationship with first nations from sea-to-sea-to sea.

Dismissing an excellent first nations candidate in the interests of splintering the vote and helping the Conservatives in the long run is not in the interest of the centre-left, the environment or the country.

Otherwise RossK is spot on.

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12 Responses to Après le smear, le surge

  1. RossK says:

    Fair enough Ian.

    For me, it really is all about Con-Stopping.

    Unfortunately, as you know, the numbers are just not there for the Dipper in Saanich/UVIC/Gulf Islands this time around.

    One I am kinda nervous about is Kootenay-Columbia…I still have it as a Con-Lock, but I really, really wonder about the surge there (as does Tony M., who has chastised me for sticking with my head, not my heart). I would really appreciate some help by folks on the ground there.

    Again, the address for the Comprehensive Surge And Strat Guide to Con Stopping in B.C. is here


  2. RossK says:

    I’ve looked Ian.

    You are absolutely correct.

    The Dipper candidate, Edith Loring-Kuhanga, in Saanich really is good.

    Let’s hope the party gets behind her longterm when the riding and the country is done with Ms. May (but after she helps stops Cons in the very short term).


  3. Islandpapa says:

    a riding that would be considered a con lock a few weeks ago has the local harperites
    looking nervous…organizing the “get out the vote” much more than 2008. Any undercover news there?

  4. kootcoot says:

    Ian, I can understand your reservations about strategic/tactical voting. However the secret to Harper’s success is the fact that the two thirds of Canadians who ARE NOT Harper zombies are split between not two, not three, but four parties. This is the same thing that kept Manning, Stock and Harper from any taste of power until he and McKay managed to trick the real Tories into selling their souls to the Canadian Taliban.

    I will admit that Saanich-Gulf Islands is a troubling riding. It would appear to me that ANY of the other candidates, including the FedLib, are superior to the low grade Lunn and last time, in spite of questionable robo-calls and no actual dipper candidate the Lib finished a close second. Actually EVERY party should be concerned about the environment, and the present day Greens, who wish they could copyright the issue have some questionable policy positions on economic and other issues.

    I originally thought the Liberal candidate was the best tactical bet for that riding and Lizzie May’s insertion of herself was just gonna guarantee yet another Lunn win. Now I’m not so sure and I’m with Ross, the first order of business is to deny Stevie Spiteful his majority. I lean dipper myself and am fortunate to live in an interior sea of NDP tranquility both federally and provincially (meaning I see less boneheaded creeps from day to day – we elect Conroy, Alex, Michelle, Corky, etc.) but from previous elections it seems as if the NDP has little traction in that riding, no matter the quality of the candidate – perhaps it’s composed of too many people that are too comfortable and not afflicted enough.

  5. Annie says:

    You got it, Ian!
    Marginalizing environmental issues in a single party makes it too easy for them to take a back seat in perpetuity.
    That’s what I’ve always liked about New Democrats: a better balance of protecting environment, protecting jobs and helping businesses to support people, rather than just take the money and run.
    And missing an opportunity to give an aboriginal women leader a voice in Parliament just breaks my heart.
    I still hope voters in Saanich and the Islands choose to make history by choosing Edith.

  6. Norm Farrell says:

    Conversations with locals and observations on Salt Spring indicate that, at least on the Gulf Islands, Elizabeth May has much support.

    I am conflicted about Greens gaining a wedge that furthers the split of progressives. Right wingers slip on Conservative (CPC) or Liberal (LPC) labels according to political convenience because both serve their basic interests, which are paramount. Progressives too should stay attached to principles rather than labels. It is natural and desirable for the NDP and Green Party to merge as one.

  7. kootcoot says:

    Norm sez:

    It is natural and desirable for the NDP and Green Party to merge as one

    But Norm, does their philosophy agree that much, once one considers other issues, like social and economic issues. I have the impression that the Green Party platform thinks Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” can solve environmental problems, just like it provides economic equity. I’m a libertarian myself, when it comes to social issues, but libertarian economics leads to robber barons and monopolies or essentially what we have today.

    But it is obvious that over three quarters of eligible voters DID NOT vote for Harpers fundie/corporate agenda and he shouldn’t get to be king on the basis of less than a quarter of Canadians casting a vote for the modern day version of Benito Mussolini.

  8. kootcoot says:

    BTW Norm as to “at least on the Gulf Islands, Elizabeth May has much support.” that is almost a mirror image of the breakdown last time as I illustrated at the House a week or two ago. Last time the Islands were Liberal red, while the tonier parts of Saanich were Con blue with a few pockets of blue as one got towards downtown Victoria.

  9. Ron says:

    Couldn’t agree more, Ian. Harper’s goose is cooked. A majority is out of the question. Only Ontario can keep him in a minority, and even that is dicey. A surge is a surge. Let’s not over think this. This time, NDP. Everywhere.

  10. Budd Hall says:

    Agree 100 per cent. Edith Kuhanga is a terrific candidate and deserves all our support

  11. RossK says:

    Fair enough folks.

    But even if you go Dipper in Saanich Gulf Isle, Ian is still with me, at least in real politick terms, on 17 other combination Surge and Strat picks in BC to take away the Con Majority all on our own.

    That list is here

  12. islandcynic says:

    If Ms. May takes a win in SGI, she will be here for a long time to come. In fact, it will encourage her provincial counterpart, leader Jane Sterk to also parachute into this riding, attempting a provincial win but ultimately giving it to the Liberals (she has already been here, partaking in our Earth Day recently). What a nightmare scenario. Talk about splitting the progressive vote to accomplish nothing.
    Ms. May has also said that she cannot work with any other mainstream party, so any who think that they will somehow merge don’t hold your breath, it could kill you. Greens are a party on their own and don’t mind spending the next 30 years to gain any sort of workable party size to get anything done in Ottawa.
    I will be sticking with my party, the NDP.

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