I love how no pundit can explain the NDP surge across Canada.  They bet on a two way race from day one, missed Layton’s excellent performance in both debates and now are struggling to find a way to kill one of the most interesting and possibly significant moves in Canadian politics in 25 years.

More on that next week.

But in the meantime I have an explanation for the current surge.

Sure, it’s a good campaign, much better than last time – with strong messaging and real policies that speak to where a large majority of citizens find themselves right now – cut off from the hope of a better future for them or their kids.

But here’s the real news:  the Reid kids began their move out east to Quebec and Ottawa just over eight years ago.  And the numbers began to move.

When Jordan left for Montreal, McGill wasn’t the only project.  There was also bringing Mulcairism to Outremont, aided by the exes’ ability to canvass in Urdu.

Then Ottawa.  Did you see Jack’s day in Quebec, the one that led off the surge?  Planned by the McGill grad.  Hello first or second place.

This year the second of three batches migrated to Montreal.  The winning infrastructure was in place.  Sure Shamus is back in BC working the campaign – nice quote in the Sun today – but he left the secret weapon out there,  Natalie B.

Cause and effect. It’s a better explanation than anything you’ll see in the National papers as the pundits scratch their heads through this campaign.

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5 Responses to Stumped

  1. RossK says:

    Now that was blogging!

    Thanks to the Reid kids, and looking forward to the analysis next week.


  2. Norm Farrell says:

    According to Tim Powers at the Toronto Grope & Flail, Mulcair is a special sort, a dangerous man who threatens Canadian politics:

    “There are lots of ambitious politicians on Parliament Hill and many who see themselves as leaders-in-waiting. Equally there are any number who have never met a mirror or microphone they don’t like. As well there are plenty of pompous and arrogant ones. But there is only one Thomas Mulcair, who seems in a great hurry to take his boss’s job.

    “Mr. Layton made him deputy leader and may have in the process have sown the seeds of his own demise as head of the NDP.

    “. . . Unlike measured, capable and respected NDP MPs such as Paul Dewar, Megan Leslie or Jack Harris – all of whom could be potential leaders – Mr. Mulcair seems to stand out as being a cheerleader for an election. My bet is Mr. Mulcair, as his televisual personality often portrays, has no interest in anything that doesn’t benefit Thomas Mulcair.”

    Jack Layton is lucky to have this early warning. Layton might be feeling good about overtaking the Liberals in polling but little did he know, his career is on the downhill slide.

  3. michelle kemper says:

    Ian…I don’t know how I missed it until now, but I’ve just been alerted to your ever witty, ever insightful blog. I’ve become addicted to your posts since early this week … keep it coming … hope you are keeping your physical health as strong as your clear mental acuity. We need your voice!

  4. Jordan says:

    1300+ in Montreal today!

  5. Garth says:

    Jordan / Shamus: I do hope you take the time to let your cousins know: Parents always know best” Uncle G.

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