Barb Justason Research has a new poll out on the Vancouver Civic scene and it’s mighty bad news for the NPA.
Twenty six points back of Vision Vancouver, the NPA is losing momentum rather than gaining it nine months out. That’s similar to the kind of numbers that drove Gordon Campbell from office four months ago.
The NPA is now statistically tied with Vancouver’s third party Cope, which – like Vision – has bounced back as the NPA slides back. More importantly, if the NPA face a united Vision/Cope slate as in the last two elections, this poll predicts a wipe out similar to last election.
And the reasons aren’t hard to see. On the big issues like running the city well, reducing homelessness and living up to Vancouver’s green reputation Vision performs well, leaving the NPA fighting on marginal turf (bike lanes) or on turf that’s worse for them (Olympic Village). Particularly disconcerting for the NPA must be the Olympic Village issue, where Vision has reaped a significant improvement in the last few months.
The poll comes at a bad time for the NPA – candidate recruitment time. Who could fault a possible star like Michael Geller for sitting this one out? A result that’s worse than 2008 is not out of the question and who wants that on their resume?
Funny how the NPA regulars over at City Caucus couldn’t find the time to even spin this one, let alone report on it.
Justason’s poll also shows residents opposed to Paragon’s new giant casino – 51% against and 31% in favour. I’ll have more on the Casino this coming week as Council considers it’s fate.