And spin it, he does

Tieleman is claiming the closing of the 21 point gap is all attributable to Campbell resigning.  No arguments just a claim.

But the pollster doesn’t agree.  Mario Cansenco of Angus Reid believes that the elimination of the gap is attributable to both Campbell resigning and the NDP’s coup.  According to the CBC “Canseco believes the NDP’s internal problems are part of the reason the party has lost a 21-point lead in one month.”

A telling point is the retention rate:  The NDP lost NDP voters and the Liberals picked up Liberal voters in the most recent survey.  That confirms Cansenco’s analysis.  Tieleman claims in his article that the loss was just parked Liberals.  But that’s simply untrue.  The voters the NDP lost were not soft Liberals parked with the NDP until it was convenient to go home.  They were traditional NDP voters.

And they were women.  The NDP’s traditional gender gap of 10 to 12 per cent has vanished.

I think the NDP numbers will drop further.  The Reid poll was done in the two days after the coup.  But it usually takes longer for the impact to sink in as people read and see reports about the machinations.

I also expect future Mustel results to be worse.  Mustel historically under-represents the NDP.  The were the least accurate pollster in the last election – out by much more than the margin of error.   If they remain consistent we can expect their numbers to show the NDP well behind.

It is, of course, in Tieleman’s interests to spin that the coup he helped orchestrate hasn’t damaged the party and it’s chances.  But I don’t see how it will help to sweep this stinking heap of BS under the rug.  James is gone.  The coup and those involved are and will remain the elephant in the room.

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25 Responses to And spin it, he does

  1. kootcoot says:

    t is, of course, in Tieleman’s interests to spin that the coup he helped orchestrate hasn’t damaged the party and it’s chances. But I don’t see how it will help to sweep this stinking heap of BS under the rug. James is gone. The coup and those involved are and will remain the elephant in the room.

    And it is in your interests to keep shrieking the sky is falling, WHY?

    It seems to me that you are the shrill hyena in the room, and maybe if you go on ad nauseam for the next few months you’re prognostications will come to pass, cuz it’s a certainly the other side will be repeating this and every other convenient BIG LIE.

    BTW, didn’t you say “to Kwan and the others is this: if you win I’m out.” of the room?

  2. get it together says:

    Hi kootcoot,

    Notice you didn’t address any of Ian’s analysis, which was perhaps too painfully accurate for you. Rather, you sought to shut Ian down. I expect that when Ian said he was “out” if Kwan and her gang won, he was not suggesting that he was going to chop off his typing fingers. He has a right to express his views, your thoughtless harassment notwithstanding.

  3. Grant G says:

    “If wishes were horses beggars could ride”

    Mr. Reid..With all due respect….I listened to Mario Canseco on cknw twice…He was on with ..I think Michael Smyth and Saturday with Sean Leslie….

    Talk about spin, Mario Canseco said no such thing, in fact he said Campbell`s resignation was the biggest factor, Mario also said that…..”Carole James never made a connection with the public, the NDP support in previous polls was very soft”……Canseco went on to say…

    “As soon as both parties get leaders, who ever finds a leader who can connect with the public has the best chance of forming Government”

    So Mr. Reid, it appears you are the (one) “spinning”

    Mario also claimed that 2 of every 3 voters are against the HST……It`s too bad that Carole`s advisors, whom ever they might be couldn`t get Carole James to speak words like this……..

    { I as leader of the NDP will remove the hst, if Ottawa refuses to allow BC out of the hst they`re certain too lose many seats in BC come the next federal election, they removed the HST in Saskatchewan it can be done here}

    That`s all Carole James had to do…..Ain`t she couldn`t get it done, waffle waffle, ….What did she say…a vague this, a vague that and…”It will be difficult, were stuck with it for 5 years”

    That is what Carole James said…So…It is my opinion and the opinion of many informed people, Carole James wasn`t exactly a charmer but Carole`s biggest problem was her advisors, they gave her crap advice, the last election the talk of raising the price of beer, a front page ad run by the bars and restaurants screaming hell no to raising beer prices, that move alone cost Carole 3 probably 4 seats last election..

    That full page ad against the NDP about the beer was hanging in every bar`s bathroom, it was displayed at food joints. Who were her advisors, who paid the pilot to get lost on route to the Ashlu IPP?

    So what we have is a leader who had little real public charm being advised by clowns, jokers and idiots, before the last election and all through the HST fiasco…Because believe me, one or more of the Liberal leaders are vowing to scrap the HST…Why couldn`t Carole do that….One answer..

    She got advice from idiots!….With all due respect!

  4. Ian says:

    With your undying commitment to unity Koot shouldn’t you post on Tieleman’s site telling him to stop writing also? I missed that.

  5. NA says:

    “It seems to me that you are the shrill hyena in the room, and maybe if you go on ad nauseam for the next few months you’re prognostications will come to pass, cuz it’s a certainly the other side will be repeating this and every other convenient BIG LIE.”

    Why not, it worked for you guys, didn’t it? I guess dissent is only on when it comes from the baker’s dozen and their supporters.

    So if we disagree with Teileman’s analysis we should all shut up and fall in line? Your hypocrisy knows no bounds.

    “She got advice from idiots!….With all due respect”

    Look it’s Grant frothing at the mouth again talking about “respect”. Thanks for the laugh.

  6. Rod Smelser says:

    If Carole James never made a huge connection with BC voters, how is that any different than most other provincial opposition leaders, who are seen by the general public as powerless, uninteresting people?

    If a provincial opposition leader were a former NHL star or a youngish multi-millionaire with movie star good looks, that might change. But short of that kind of thing provincial opposition leaders live out their lives in a world of obscurity. Except for one group. The more or less committed supporters of that party who are eager to see the party win. For them, this opposition nobody is a somebody needing another 5% of the vote and then we’ll see.

    Soon there will be an interim leader, whose name will not ring a bell with more than about 5% of the voters, tops. Sometime next spring there will be a new “permanent” leader, who I am willing to bet may have name recognition at the start with as much as 10 to 15 percent of the voters. Sat down in a room and asked to name three things about the new “permanent” NDP leader, a sample of voters will be very hard pressed to come up with anything, the person’s home district, what they did for a living before politics, etc.

    This problem is especially large for the NDP since the party is loathe to do any serious positive publicity on any of their public people, leaders or local candidates. Our candidates are black-lettered surnames on a yard sign, faceless representatives of the always unhappy about something left.

    Consider the average BC voters “information” about National Leader Jack Layton. They know for a fact that he is just a Toronto/Ottawa politician. Does he have a PhD in political science, has he written books? No, that distinction belongs to Ignatieff! Has he lived in subsidized social housing improperly, did he and his wife overspend on their MP expenses? YES!

    It’s clear in Layton’s case that the Liberals/Conservatives and their pliant friends in the media have been 101% successful in defining Layton to the voters. The NDP just sits there and takes it, and takes it, and takes it, … till they get so fed up they get rid of the leader.

  7. Mark says:

    Holy crap, I agree with Grant on something – and what’s this, a debate on issues. Love it. Paraphrasing that: “The beer price issue was a major challenge in the last election, and cost us votes.” I agree. Was it the right thing to do, probably. Would it have increased beer prices, not at all (it would have taken a few dollars out of the pockets of cold beer and wine store owners). Did anyone anticipate it being twisted the way it was, I guess not. I wasn’t there. But like you, I was mad when I saw the first Liberal ad, and I wished we hadn’t put it in the platform. It was too much detail. It laid out too clearly what we would do. It have the Liberals something to focus in on and do us harm.

    I imagine that’s why Bob Simpson kept advocating that, this time around, we needed a high level platform that would speak to values and objectives, and not specific policy statements. Bob certainly wouldn’t want us to fall in that same trap we did in 2009, throwing away votes again.

    Oh wait, that’s not right. Bob Simpson was so mad at Carole because she wouldn’t put out a detailed and specific platform, committing the NDP as government to all sorts of actions. And Bob wanted us to do it two and half years before the scheduled election.

  8. Grant G says:

    I understand the beer increase was small …The point was the Liberals twisted it…And the ads hanging in the bathrooms was not a direct BC Liberal ad…It was an ad paid for by the beer and wine stores, bars and restaurants.

    And Michael Smyth…He ran at least 4 articles claiming the NDP were going digging in the working class pockets increasing the price of beer and the burger(minimum wage)

    And for those paying attention, the restaurant industry have started already, there was an article in the Victoria times, and on CTV TV news…The restaurant and bar industry are making the claim…

    “The HST hurt our industry, the harsher penalties for drinking driving have hurt the industry and if Government brings the third hit, if the minimum wage is raised 1 in 5 bars and restaurants in BC are going to close by spring 2011” snip…..

    So now what, if the NDP try and raise the min wage they will attack again…..Well friends…..I suggested yesterday to one of the NDP front runners that HE go to a Quebec style minimum wage….

    What they do there is……If you work at MacDonalds or 7/11 where you get no tips the minimum wage is higher, if you work in a bar, club, restaurant where you get tips, the minimum wage is lower…..That folks is an answer ….Where are the braniacs advising the NDP today…

    I suggest they reside at The Straight Goods

    Cheers

  9. Rod Smelser says:

    …..I suggested yesterday to one of the NDP front runners that HE go to a Quebec style minimum wage….

    What they do there is……If you work at MacDonalds or 7/11 where you get no tips the minimum wage is higher, if you work in a bar, club, restaurant where you get tips, the minimum wage is lower…..That folks is an answer ….Where are the braniacs advising the NDP today…

    I suggest they reside at The Straight Goods
    =================================

    This is laughable on both policy and political levels. That any one would even mention the beer price thing shows how desperate people are.

  10. Rod Smelser says:

    Grant, do you have any idea how predictable it is that you would direct people to Holman?

  11. cherylb says:

    I know you guys don’t think it’s going to happen, but I am looking forward to actually having people volunteer to help next time around. Certainly didn’t get much help last time around.

  12. Adrian says:

    Where does Tieleman claim that the closing of the gap is “all” attributable to Campbell resigning? He says no such thing but merely quotes, and agrees with, the pollster’s own interpretation that Campbell’s resignation was probably the main reason for the convergence, as the rest of the sentence in that CBC article you referred to (but didn’t fully quote) says.

    “And now we see in the new Angus Reid poll that with Gordon Campbell gone, a large number of BC Liberal voters who had reluctantly and unenthusiatically parked their with the NDP temporarily are going home.” That’s what Tieleman accurately argues, in exact accordance with Canseco’s analysis, contrary to your allegation that they differ.

    The retention rate is indeed a telling point. While some of the lost support from decideds for the now leaderless NDP came from traditional New Democrats, the retention rate of the BC Liberals went up 20 points from 55 to 75, more than double the change of the NDP’s rate. This reinforces how the closing of the gap is mostly due to former BC Liberals returning to the fold because of Campbell’s resignation and James’ shortcomings, and not the infighting. And yes, while female support for the NDP has significantly dropped, there was nearly the same decline amongst respondents with incomes below 50k. Given how the majority of British Columbian women did not approve of Carole James, and that a majority of the public would have likely approved of the resignation of James if Angus Reid asked (given her massive unpopularity), it’s highly doubtful that James’ ouster is the reason the polls have converged. And again, if women are now upset with NDP, how does purging its most popular and longest-serving female MLA, Jenny Kwan, going to remedy this problem?

    I know Reid doesn’t like essay-length comments, but one more point. While I’m not necessarily talking about anyone in this thread, some of my zealous anti-James Comrades need to recognize that we’re not going to reunite the party by personally attacking and smearing prominent Jamesists like Reid and Schreck. I strongly disagreed with their misguided attacks on us (i.e. that we were de facto BC Liberals supporters and were destroying the NDP by dissenting and speaking out, etc.. etc..) so it would be hypocritical for us to do the same to them now. They have every right to be pissed off and disagree with what has happened, and trying to hector them into silence is not going to get us anywhere. And I think we have to admit to some rather uncomfortable facts like how sexism (with anti-Native racism as a force multiplier) towards James, that was undeniably out there, did play some small part in her ouster, even if the dissidents didn’t stoke it in any way (and were amongst the least prejudiced people in the province).

  13. Linda says:

    Adrian is right about one thing — it is extremely hypocritical for those who viciously attacked and publicly humiliated Carole James to now tell us who are James supporters that we can’t comment or criticize what they’ve done. I’ve been an NDP member for 35 years and I’ve never seen anything like what has gone on these past 2 months. Because of the deliberate actions of a minority of MLAs, the party is deeply divided and I wonder if the wounds will ever heal. Not only is the caucus divided but the membership is also fractured. Friends who campaigned together were forced to take sides and are now estranged. It is very sad and for what? This “coup d’etat” has made us the laughing stock of the media and the Liberals. How can we have a cohesive party in the future if renegade MLAs are allowed to publicly trash the Leader and the party’s governing Provincial Council and then, when the party implodes around them, they tell us to “suck it up” and not complain so that “healing” can begin. Their idea of healing is that no one can criticize them! There has to be consequences for their actions otherwise no NDP leader or caucus will be able to function properly in the future. If Jenny Kwan were to resign, then the two sides would have lost their leaders and be on equal ground for perhaps a truce and some dialogue to begin. I wonder if she will now resign “for the good of the party” as she asked Carole James to do. This is a very bad situation and the Baker’s Dozen and Bill Tieleman, Sean Holman and their other fans need to realize the anger and disappointment of the majority of party members is not going to evaporate into thin air unless and until the other side offers some kind of olive branch. And, thank you, Ian, for providing this venue for discussion. I agree with your comments and wish you well.

  14. Rod Smelser says:

    @Adrian

    “Given how the majority of British Columbian women did not approve of Carole James, and that a majority of the public would have likely approved of the resignation of James if Angus Reid asked (given her massive unpopularity),

    Pure invention.

    I just realized something relevant to the party’s future, such as it is. When it comes time to assess the performance of the new leader, after some brief probationary period, the critical number is five, in that 5 out of 13 is the same crucial percentage as 13 is out of 34.

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  16. Sandra says:

    Grant G… perhaps you should consider your the words you use when calling people who worked tirelessly for our party and our province “idiots”. None of those people are idiots. They are smart, decent and committed individuals who have served a party and a wonderful leader with distinction.

  17. Devinder says:

    I start reading Bill Teilemen Blog. Or Bill Bullshit Blog I like to call it. He knifes Carole James and now plays like nice guy and everyone should be happy he does nothing wrong. He is like the snake who crossed the road. I wonder who he backs for NDP leader ?

  18. Adrian says:

    Pure invention.

    Not at all Rod. It’s a reasonable argument based on the evidence. James had an approval rating of 25% from all British Columbians, including women. She likely had more support from women than men, meaning an approval rating higher than 25% amongst women, but it’s almost impossible that the figure was above 50%, given her 25% overall.

    As for the claim I make about the approval of all British Columbians for removing James: given that a majority of New Democrats themselves according to Angus Reid wanted to replace her back in Aug 2009, way before the infighting, and that she only had 25% approval from the public, it would be rather surprising if this wasn’t the case as I stated. If people don’t approve of a leader, why would they be opposed to seeing them replaced? Too bad Angus Reid didn’t ask this question in their survey.

    [the] critical number is five, in that 5 out of 13 is the same crucial percentage

    No it isn’t, because that percentage of dissident MLAs would have gotten nowhere if James hadn’t been so low in the polls, or had lost two elections in a row, and other factors.

  19. Norm Farrell says:

    I wonder who is more credible, a partisan involved in the putsch or an academic political scientist with no horse in the race? From SFU prof Kennedy Stewart:

    “There has been plenty of speculation Carole James was axed as NDP leader because she was less popular than her party. However, this has only been the case twice in eleven polls conducted by the Mustel group since June, 2008. These polls show, when the +/-4.4 margin of error is taken into account, James polled was ahead party (4 times) or in a statistical tie with the party (five times) in nine of eleven polls. In addition, her September, 2010 approval rating of 42 per cent is on par with that of US president Obama.”

    http://kennedystewart.ca/2010/12/carole-james-by-the-numbers/

  20. Adrian says:

    I wonder who is more credible, a partisan involved in the putsch or an academic political scientist with no horse in the race?

    Your attempt at ad hominem is inadvertently half-right Norm. I’m not an academic political scientist, but Stewart is clearly a partisan who was involved in the putsch, on James’ side, and is obviously not a neutral nor unbiased commentator. Anyone who has been following him during all this can see that. Note how he’s still spreading this outrageous lie that James was taken out because she was a women.

    From SFU prof Kennedy Stewart:

    Yeah, I saw that, and it continues to demonstrate why Stewart has been such an unserious and tendentious writer during this whole affair. As Schreck has rightly pointed out, does anyone seriously believe that James was only one point above Campbell before the latter resigned? I don’t know why Jamesists would want to believe this, or think that this makes her look good, but I’m rather skeptical about Mustel’s numbers like Schreck.

    And Stewart continues to embarrass himself with this post by visually showing how, even under Mustel, James had significantly trailed her party for over a year. Under the more accurate Angus Reid poll, Stewart’s claims lose further credibility, and makes his silly comparison with Obama’s lowest approval numbers (risibly implying that she’s been in the same ballpark as him) even more misleading.

  21. Rod Smelser says:

    @Adrian

    Not at all Rod. It’s a reasonable argument based on … If people don’t approve of a leader, why would they be opposed to seeing them replaced? Too bad Angus Reid didn’t ask this question in their survey.

    Thanks Adrian, you’ve proved my point to a far greater degree than I could ever have hoped for. You’ve taken some polling data, done your own extrapolations and inferences, and presented the results as if they were measured facts. They are not, and you know it. Do you really think others can’t figure that out?

    At work yesterday someone asked me why — and then he struggled for the name — was dumped. I said, “You mean Carole James?” Yes, he did. He went on to say why didn’t the NDP just stick with what they had, be the party of stability while the Liberals did their fake leadership race, roll out a platform, and wait? I tried to be diplomatic, saying it was “office politics” that got her, coupled with some outside pressure and hostility from green and left-libertarian factions and their various associates, etc. He mentioned Mike Farnworth for leader, but without any wild enthusiam, just that Farnworth seems a reasonable, safe choice. He didn’t mention The Corkster, and neither did I. It’s a sample of one, but there it is.

    Carole didn’t arouse great Kennedy-Trudeauesque passions, that’s true. And neither will Mike Farnworth or any of the other possibles. That doesn’t mean voters were eager to see these people ruthlessly jack-hammered out of their jobs because one third of the office co-workers didn’t like them any more.

    You’re not the only one who’s yelled and screamed ad nauseum about the 25% approval figure. Fine. What is the minimum threshold you’ll accept? Would you be content at 30%? What about 35%? Does it need to be 40% or more? Suppose the new leader is chosen and has an AR approval score of 25% or less. What’s your next move, Adrian?

  22. Wayne says:

    I believe that Jenny K is a brave soul who has done the right thing for MY NDP as I was seriously thinking of voting Independent, sad.

  23. Rod Smelser says:

    @Adrian
    No it isn’t, because that percentage of dissident MLAs would have gotten nowhere if James hadn’t been so low in the polls, or had lost two elections in a row, and other factors.

    You’re not addressing the issue at all, just doing the polling data thing again. You’re not being serious and … well, let’s leave it at that.

  24. Adrian says:

    Thanks Adrian, you’ve proved my point to a far greater degree than I could ever have hoped for. You’ve taken some polling data, done your own extrapolations and inferences, and presented the results as if they were measured facts. They are not, and you know it. Do you really think others can’t figure that out?

    Very weak Rod. I thought you were smarter than this. Did I come up with James’ 25% approval number? Did I come up with Angus Reid’s figure of 51% of New Democrats who wanted to get rid of James over a year ago? Of course I didn’t. Like I said, Angus Reid didn’t ask British Columbians if they approved of James’ resignation, but just look at the numbers out there. It’s not unreasonable at all for me to draw the conclusion I did. Though I take it when you and others make your own “inferences” and conclude that the latest Angus Reid figures prove that the public, especially women, are angry about James’ expulsion so the NDP have declined in support, that’s completely different and fair game eh?

    Suppose the new leader is chosen and has an AR approval score of 25% or less. What’s your next move, Adrian?

    Suppose I slip on a banana peel and break my back, what’s my next move then? Or suppose a new leader is chosen and has a score of higher than 40% and we win the next election. What’s your next move then, Rod? Look, anyone can play this game and we’re going to have see how things play out. I think my side is going to be vindicated when we have a new leader with a new direction who, at the very least, will be able to connect more with the public than James.

    You’re not addressing the issue at all, just doing the polling data thing again. You’re not being serious and … well, let’s leave it at that.

    Shirley you can’t be saying that it would have only taken 5 out of 13 MLAs to expel James even if she had not lost two elections in a row?

  25. Rod Smelser says:

    @Adrian
    I expected you to deny responsibility for the consequences of your actions, and you have.

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