Tieleman is claiming the closing of the 21 point gap is all attributable to Campbell resigning. No arguments just a claim.
But the pollster doesn’t agree. Mario Cansenco of Angus Reid believes that the elimination of the gap is attributable to both Campbell resigning and the NDP’s coup. According to the CBC “Canseco believes the NDP’s internal problems are part of the reason the party has lost a 21-point lead in one month.”
A telling point is the retention rate: The NDP lost NDP voters and the Liberals picked up Liberal voters in the most recent survey. That confirms Cansenco’s analysis. Tieleman claims in his article that the loss was just parked Liberals. But that’s simply untrue. The voters the NDP lost were not soft Liberals parked with the NDP until it was convenient to go home. They were traditional NDP voters.
And they were women. The NDP’s traditional gender gap of 10 to 12 per cent has vanished.
I think the NDP numbers will drop further. The Reid poll was done in the two days after the coup. But it usually takes longer for the impact to sink in as people read and see reports about the machinations.
I also expect future Mustel results to be worse. Mustel historically under-represents the NDP. The were the least accurate pollster in the last election – out by much more than the margin of error. If they remain consistent we can expect their numbers to show the NDP well behind.
It is, of course, in Tieleman’s interests to spin that the coup he helped orchestrate hasn’t damaged the party and it’s chances. But I don’t see how it will help to sweep this stinking heap of BS under the rug. James is gone. The coup and those involved are and will remain the elephant in the room.