Spin this Jenny, Bill et al

From the CBC website:

“A new poll has put the B.C. Liberals and the NDP in a dead heat for voter support with 36 per cent support for each, as the two parties race to replace their leaders.

Support for the Liberals has increased 10 per cent since Premier Gordon Campbell announced his resignation, while support for the NDP has dropped 11 per cent in the past month, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion.

Pollster Mario Canseco said he’s never seen this big a shift in public opinion in just one month.”

***

Update:  The BC NDP dropped 16 pts. amongst women voters in a month.  That’s almost a third of their support among women.  They dropped 4 pts. amongst men or about an eighth of their support.  Do you think women voters might be upset about a party destroying a woman leader?

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/12/09/bc-poll-ndp-liberals.html#ixzz17eP2lRxd

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29 Responses to Spin this Jenny, Bill et al

  1. Rod Smelser says:

    Now Ian, … really.

    It’s a nice try, and of course I am of the same opinion as you.

    But how long do you think it’s going to take a seasoned political hardball player like Bill to say, “As I have warned for months, James stayed on too long. Thankfully, Jenny and the 13 principled MLAs … giving the NDP a real fighting chance, if only the die hard and ungracious James and Sihota loyalists would put the interests of BC voters and the party first!”.

    In fact, these script lines were probably written some time ago, and just need to be fine tuned by substituting in the particular dates and figures.

  2. Ian says:

    Rod,
    Of course they will, but the party numbers have been consistently strong until the attacks on Carole, right up to a month ago. Now they’ve taken a dive. If that’s their spin it’s mighty week and leaves out the elephant in the room – them.

  3. Rod Smelser says:

    Agreed Ian, with one proviso. That Angus Reid poll shows strong support for Kwan, so any suggestion that the party should take some kind of punitive action against her for being a @#)($&*!@#^ is simply not on.

    As far as I am concerned, the job of interim and permanent leader should be assigned to one of the baked dozen. Let one of them take the risk of standing in front of the rest of them.

    I kind of like Golden school principal Norm MacDonald for that role. How Norm’s nice guy schtick would do in a TV debate up against Kevin “Machine Gun” Falcon will be interesting to see. As for handling his own parliamentarians, well, I hope he’s either got nerves of steel or a bottomless Prozac prescription. He’ll have to live out his term as Leader be it a week, a few months, even a year or two at the very outside, knowing better than any of us that each tick of the clock he hears is one tick closer to the last.

    To ask anyone else to step in, given that these people are fantastically exhilirated and super-confident, having just won a total victory, is kind of nuts. No one else can even contemplate let alone accept that kind of risk.

  4. PJ says:

    Just read the poll results and you sure twisted that the way you wanted it to read. As a person who takes these poll from Augus Reid, I can tell you that the way the question is asked, creates a response. Now saying that I do believe that they try to be very honest about their polls but as well I know that stats can be interpreted in the manner in which the poll is penned.

    Of course people are going to be hesitant with leaderless parties. I noted that there were the words such as ‘among decided voters and leaners . . . ‘

    What is surprising to me is that you seem to be jubilant about this.

    What is sad is that you pointed out the stats about the decline in women supporters, those that this poll seems to point out, voted by STAYING AT HOME, which in essence is a vote for the other guys (a vote by default for the Lying Liberals).

    Don’t twist the message Ian, because you will spread this crap to people who will begin to believe that Christy Clark is the God sent savior of this province. They will begin to believe your message, as you see it, and forget to remember the damage that this female pit bull spewed on this province with unmerciful delight.

    Be careful or you just might be working for the Liberal bastards.

  5. Ian says:

    Jubilant? I think it’s tragic. In fact I’ve compared this last month in the BCNDP to one of the greatest tragedies ever written.

    Reid was the most accurate pollster in the last BC election, pretty much dead on. The methodology here is pretty standard. It’s certainly impossible to say this was a push poll. And the numbers speak for themselves. There is no way this is good for the NDP and women are the heart of the problem identified here. And finally, I am never working for the BC Liberals.

  6. Kevin Logan says:

    I know!!!

    It is indisputable were on the right track!!

    The single most important revealing piece of data is Jenny’s numbers….

    Amazing really…..

  7. Rod Smelser says:

    Amazing, Kevin. Or revolting?

  8. Lawrence says:

    The reckoning has begun.

  9. Adrian says:

    So it looks like James had squandered the historic lead after all. Though the 20 point lead was always misleading because it was against Campbell who was never going to contest the next election anyway.

    “Update: The BC NDP dropped 16 pts. amongst women voters in a month. That’s almost a third of their support among women. They dropped 4 pts. amongst men or about an eighth of their support. Do you think women voters might be upset about a party destroying a woman leader?”

    Do you think women voters might be upset if the longest-serving and arguably the most popular female politician in the BCNDP, according to the poll you cite, continues to be beat up, smeared and bullied in resignation as you are demanding? How is beating up on Jenny Kwan going to win women voters?

    But I’m glad you trust Angus Reid’s polling Ian, because you must agree then that a majority of the NDP’s supporters have wanted their leader to be replaced for some time, long before any of the infighting:

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/08/11/bc-angus-reid-poll-liberals-down.html

  10. Mark says:

    Is anyone seriously spinning these numbers as being good for Kwan? Only 27% think she’s a good choice for BC. I’m curious what the “bad choice” number is – as it was not published.

    This poll makes one thing perfectly clear – not a single member of caucus has better numbers than Carole did, at her worst.

  11. Homozivicus says:

    PJ: I think it’s safe to assume that Ian has more experience reading polls than all the rest of us put together.

  12. Adrian says:

    “This poll makes one thing perfectly clear – not a single member of caucus has better numbers than Carole did, at her worst.”

    Actually that’s not clear at all. Kwan’s 27% is higher than James’ 25% personal approval in the last Angus Reid, which is amazing as the former doesn’t have anywhere near as much name recognition as the latter.

  13. Mark says:

    The last set of Reid numbers were in the field when the coup-leaders knives were already out publicly for Carole. I don’t consider them relevant at all. And yes, at 25% they were terrible numbers. That Jenny’s are equally bad (margin of error accounted for) should knock the smirk off her face completely.

    What I do see as entirely clear is that there is very little basis for the party to begin healing and to unify. With no efforts at conciliation, the emboldened minority continues to fight for more and to throw stones at Carole’s legacy and her supporters.

    Unlike Ian, who may or may not quit, I am emboldened to get more involved than I ever have been and to back a leader who will unify the majority of the party behind an effort to rid the party of its garbage.

  14. Adrian says:

    “The last set of Reid numbers were in the field when the coup-leaders knives were already out publicly for Carole. I don’t consider them relevant at all.”

    But James’ personal approval has been in the twenties for more than a year, long before the infighting, including the poll I cited from August 2009. So it is very relevant.

    “That Jenny’s are equally bad (margin of error accounted for)”

    So there’s no margin of error for James’ 25% (which was probably lower than 25% before she resigned)? And let’s be careful, the poll questions for James and Kwan’s numbers here were not quite identical, though close enough to use for comparison. It’s quite possible that Kwan’s personal approval rating is higher than 27% (27% despite the “knives being out for her”), as some respondents may have approved of Kwan but preferred other candidates for the NDP leadership, especially as Kwan has unequivocally ruled out leadership aspirations and would be too divisive a choice.

  15. Rod Smelser says:

    Provincial opposition leaders in Canada have weak profiles at the best of times. So if Carole James lingered in the twenties and thirties, that cannot be a surprise. It’s a reality of the job and the environment more than anything.

    That Kwan had enough recognition to get similar replies is amazing to me. But if she were opposition leader for two or three months, I believe her numbers would start to shrink as she suffered from a combination of the lack of big visibility that dogs any opposition leader combined with her nose for polarizing simplicities. It was Kwan who demanded that the NDP take a strict Vote No position on Maynecourts ‘Safe Streets Act’, thus re-electing Maynecourt by a couple of dozen votes over Tim Stevenson.

  16. Ian says:

    Just checked Mustel Adrian. You’re absolutely wrong. James approval ratings have been in the mid to low forties for two years now – 44% the highest and one incident of 39% the lowest. The only aberration is the last poll November 17th, taken after the internal attacks by Kwan and others began in earnest, where approval fell to 33%.

  17. PJ says:

    a message to Homozivicus

    Really, and you know me from where . . . ?

  18. Homozivicus says:

    Nowhere, to my knowledge.

    Could you tell me your experience reading polls?

  19. Adrian says:

    “Provincial opposition leaders in Canada have weak profiles at the best of times.”

    Yeah, that’s true, and in fairness to James, we are at an unusual moment in political history right now where politicians of all stripes seem to be hated more than ever by the electorate. But nevertheless, her numbers were still quite low, especially versus the most unpopular premier maybe in the history of Canada.

    “Just checked Mustel Adrian. You’re absolutely wrong.”

    Nice try Ian. You know that there are consistent discrepancies between different pollsters so I’ve been talking about Angus Reid, the pollster you selected here in your post, and which was more accurate in predicting the ’09 election than Mustel. I double-checked Angus Reid, and, as I said, James has been around the 20s for over a year, with a ceiling of 30. I’ll stand corrected if I missed something, but according to Angus Reid the last time she was above 30 was in November 2009. She was incontrovertibly in the 20s before the Simpson explusion that was the opening salvo of the civil war: http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010.08.06_Politics_BC.pdf

    As for the Mustel Poll, which I wasn’t talking about, I’ll refer you to Comrade Schreck’s critique of the poll, someone whom I believe you must think has been a serious and responsible commentator in this whole debate: “I don’t believe the numbers reported by the Mustel Group, which on November 17th claimed that 32% of those they polled approve Campbell. You couldn’t get numbers like that for Campbell if you polled his closest friends.” It’s not clear how accurate Mustel was on the NDP’s decline at that time, but do you seriously believe, as Schreck has pointed out, that James was only one percentage point above Campbell then, regardless of all the infighting? I’m rather skeptical.

    But this is moot anyway, the real and relevant question here is how does kicking out the longest-serving and probably most popular female MLA in the BCNDP, and the only woman whom Angus Reid names in its leadership race, going to help win over female voters, a problem you rightly underscore?

  20. Rod Smelser says:

    Adrian, why not tell us what any of those popularity numbers really mean in terms of voter motivation? I suggest very little. Any approval rating Gordon M. Campbell has ever had has never been composed of any kind of public like for the man, but an acceptance of the Coalition political package, cutting income taxes, putting business first, keeping labour under watch, etc., etc.

    If it’s true, and I don’t accept that it is, that James personal figures were anemic, that’s probably because some people think Carole wanted to build three more fast ferries and put Pollard back in charge of appointments.

    I have to say I think the fretting over fickle female voters is plain silly. The real worry is Aboriginal reaction, which could last for generations, and could be felt first and hardest in some of the baked dozen seats. Austin, Coons and Lali had better have checked with local Aboriginal leaders BEFOREHAND, something Bill Tieleman and Sean Holman would not have told them.

  21. Derek in Toronto says:

    Fore some reason – online polls such as those by Angus Reid seem to consistently give ALL political figures much lower approval ratings than do polls done by phone. I’m not sure why this is – but its a fact. Notice for example that in the AR poll out this week on federal politics – all the federal leaders have seemingly ridiculously low approval ratings – with Harper at 27%! Its funny that pundits talk is if the bottom has fallen out of Obama’s popularity because his approval numbers these days are typically in the mid-40s – but I don’t see anyone squawking about Harper being at 27%!

  22. kootcoot says:

    Ian sez:

    And finally, I am never working for the BC Liberals.

    Too bad, I for one wish that the Rahm Emmanuel of BC Politics would work to destroy the LIEberals intstead of the NDP as he is now doing!

  23. BC Patriot says:

    Wow – that’s a lot of arguing about the minutiae of polling data.

    Did any of you ever actually TALK to members of the general public about their views on Carole?
    Don’t get me wrong – I like Carole, I think she’s really nice and would’ve made a great leader. HOWEVER, many people did not want to vote NDP while she was leader. I hate to say it, but I feel like a huge burden has been lifted off our party. It will be really nice to doorknock without hearing “I’d vote for you but I don’t like ______”.

    So can we grow up a bit, put aside our differences and focus on the hard work of winning an election possibly next year?

  24. Mark says:

    “the Rahm Emmanuel of BC Politics” – not sure if that’s intended as a compliment, but I’d take it as one Ian. Young, good looking, genius, hard ass.

    Kootcoot – do you cast the same judgement on those who opened fire? I doubt it. Because hypocrisy has become the common theme, and it is some damn aggressive hypocrisy.

    If you believe, like I do and like Ian does, and like we predicted, that shooting Carole would make it impossible for the NDP to win the next election, then what we are doing by continuing the fight is absolutely reasonable. See, not only have Jenny, Harry and crew robbed the NDP of its election chances this coming year, they have robbed the party of trust. And without trust, the party is destroyed. So, working to expel the sources of mistrust is, in my not-so-humble opinion, working to save the party from the destruction Jenny and crew wrought.

  25. kootcoot says:

    No what I meant regarding Rahm Emmanuel is that working from his position as Chief of Staff and a Israeli/Corporate mole, he will take a lot of responsibility for Obama being a one term president and the US electing someone Sarah Palin or Romney and people looking back to the good ole Bush the Lesser days!

    Now Rahm’s off to lay siege to Chicago, maybe Ian should try to take Prince George, it has lotsa problems too!

  26. Rod Smelser says:

    “… a Israeli/Corporate mole …”

    So that’s who Bill Tieleman and Sean Holman and the baked dozen have been appealing to. Interesting revelation.

  27. Grant G says:

    Looks like David Shreck is back on his game…A good read.

    http://www.strategicthoughts.com/record2010/TiedInDec.html

    Good Day

  28. Devinder says:

    I went to the Bill Tielemen website and he spin it pretty good Ian. My head still spinning from Bill BS. That guy must have hard time looking in mirror.

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